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  • Writer's pictureRainer Gumpert

Jan 2021 Update to our May and October 2020 Covid Articles.

Another Update to our May and October 2020 Covid19 Articles:

May Summary:

We at CCP have constructed these rough/simple directional formulas in the ongoing C19 pandemic period (say up to the next 12 - 18 months ) to help us guide where we spend our time.

1. (Economic Activity/Recovery) is proportional to (Consumer Confidence)

2. (Consumer Confidence) is proportional to (C19 Infection Rate) X (Ability/Quality of Government Crisis Management) X (Visibility of a Vaccine)

October Summary:

Negative Economic Growth in 2Q2020 was proportional to increasing Covid Infections.

Current Observation:

The relationship between consumer confidence (and therefore spending) and increasing new C19 infection has inverted from the Q2 [&Q3] 2020 period. The "Visibility of a Vaccine" has increased dramatically at the end of 2020 and is now the key driver to Consumer Confidence.

Case Study Indonesia:

“Indonesia's consumer confidence index increased 4.5 points from the previous month to 96.5 in December 2020, amid hopes an effective COVID-19 vaccine. This was the strongest reading since March, as most of the six main sub-indices improved...” source: Bank Indonesia

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