What should relative Covid Valuation Discounts/Premiums for countries be?
We at CCP have constructed these rough directional formulas in the ongoing C19 pandemic period (say up to the next 12 - 18 months ) to help us guide where we spend our time.
1. (Economic Activity/Recovery) is proportional to (Consumer Confidence)
2. (Consumer Confidence) is proportional to (C19 Infection Rate) X (Ability/Quality of Government Crisis Management) X (Visibility of a Vaccine)
What does it say about a "Government Crisis Management Ability" when we prioritise the opening of nightclubs (when whole purpose of these institutions is not to social distance?) and not schools?
Perplexing decisions and the poor ability to communicate, significantly reduce the "Quality of Government Crisis Management" Scores in our mind. Poor "Quality of Government Crisis Management" means higher probability for successive waves of lock downs, which hammers consumer confidence and business revenue gathering ability. At the moment the countries within our scope of analysis, with Reducing Infection Rates and Stable Government Crisis Management Scores are: 1. Thailand 2. Vietnam